Lifting the Arms Embargo, Debt Relief and Surfacing of Abiy’s Suicidal Endeavor: Coincidences or Choreographed?

Lifting the Arms Embargo, Debt Relief and Surfacing of Abiy’s Suicidal Endeavor: Coincidences or Choreographed?

Unlike any other country in the world and for unjustifiable reasons, Somalia was under arms embargo for 32 years, from 1992 to 2023, 130% more years than the average years of UN arms embargo on all the countries when all of sudden it was lifted, followed by a debt relief and Abiy’s Suicidal endeavor. In this article we will delve into whether those three events, which happened within 31 days, were more likely coordinated than coincidences.

Figure 1: The Duration of Arms Embargo of 11 Countries

To shed more light on the likelihood that these three events were coordinated, we will try to answer the following questions:

1) Which countries were responsible for prolonging the arms embargo on Somalia?
2) Which countries were responsible for the lifting of the arms embargo?
3) Who will benefit the most from Somalia-Ethiopia arms race due to the current crisis?
4) Which countries are supporting Abiy’s preposterous claims.
5) Why Somalia and Ethiopia are at the opposite ends of figure1 and Ethiopia was not placed under arms embargo during the Tigray war and the current war with Amhara?

To answer the first question, we look into the remarks, explanations and voting records of the permanent members of Security Council on the arms embargo against Somalia:

i) On Nov 16, 2021, Ambassador Dai Bing of China remarks after UN Security Council vote on resolution of Extensions of arms embargo against Somalia: “. . . At present, Somalia has continuously made progress in national reconstruction, and gradually enhanced its security capabilities. The Somali Government has formulated and updated the Somalia Transition Plan, demonstrating its willingness and resolve to independently take security responsibilities and take ownership of its own destiny. Under these circumstances, the Security Council should, based upon the request of Somali Government, gradually modify the arms embargo measures against Somalia in order to assist the Somali government in enhancing its security capacity and restoring state authority. It is regrettable that the resolution does not contain sufficient adjustments required in pursuit of above-mentioned objectives, and failed to effectively address the concerns of the Somali government. At the same time, it has added some new mandates, which are inconsistent with the general direction of lifting the arms embargo against Somalia …”

ii) On Nov 17, 2022, Chinese ambassador to the UN, Ambassador Geng Shuang on his explanation on vote on the sanctions against Somalia said: “the Council should heed the call of African countries, respond positively to their demands, and review and adjust all the sanctions against them in a timely manner. The resolution that was put to the vote right now, gives exemptions to the arms embargo on bilateral partners of Somalia. But it is differentiated from other existing Council sanctions regimes. It is inconsistent with the principles of fairness and non-discrimination.”

iii) On Nov 12, 2020, on resolution 2551 for renewing partial lifting of arms embargo against Somalia, 13 voted in favor, none against, China and Russia abstained. Tunisia was among the 13 countries voted in favor.

iv) On Nov 16, 2021, on resolution 2607 for renewing the arms embargo against Somalia, 13 voted in favor, none against, China and Russia abstained. Among the 13 countries that voted in favor were Tunisia and Norway.

v) ON Nov 17, 2022, on resolution 2662 for renewing the sanctions regime against Somalia, 11 in favor, none against, China, Russia, Gabon and Ghana abstained. Among the 13 countries voted in favor were United Arab Emirates and Norway.

When these remarks and explanations of the Chinese ambassadors that further accuse the Security Council of unfair treatment and discrimination against Somalia as well as the voting records of the Chinese and the Russians are taken into account, it can be said with confidence that China and Russia are not included in the list of countries that prolonged the arms embargo against Somalia. So the answer to question (1) will be: USA, UK and France.

For question (2), since USA, UK and France were responsible for prolonging the arms embargo against Somalia, it goes without saying that they are responsible for lifting the arms embargo against Somalia.

To answer question (3) we will look into what could happen in the future with the current arms race between Somalia and Ethiopia. Both countries would buy arms with external loan and be heavily indebted and eventually default. This may pave the way for taking over the ports and airports of Somalia under the disguise of privatization and the UK has prepared Ugandan Marines to do the dirty job. In that scenario, Creditors and debt brokers, World Bank and IMF, will benefit the most and as you may be aware, the heads of the World Bank and IMF are always from the USA and France respectively. Obviously, USA, UK and France will benefit the most from Somalia/Ethiopia arms race.

To answer Question (4), we will look into how USA, UK and France reacted to Abiy’s absurdity. If someone claims that he owns a portion of your house in which your family lived for ages and the Police say “let us resolve this through negotiation’ and not condemn the false claim, it becomes clear to you that the Police are not neutral in the conflict but sided with the person who made the false claim. Similarly, USA is pushing Somalia to negotiate with Ethiopia about its MOA with Somaliland when the only issue that Somalia can negotiate with Ethiopia is delimiting their boundary with international agreement. This proves that the USA is supporting Ethiopia in this conflict. France openly supports Ethiopia in its despicable claim and recently, UK signed an agreement to protect the Ethiopian borders with Somalia as if there was a boundary delimited under an international agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia.

The border between southern Somalia (former UN Trust Territory of Somaliland) and Ethiopia is a Provisional Administrative Line, dashed line in figure 2, that was suggested by Sahle Maryam, the illegitimate child of Haile Molokot and the palace servant Woizero Ijigayehu, who later named himself Minilik and ruled Shewa from 1844 to 1913. Yes, Minilik was born out of wedlock with all the related psychological issues as an adult.‐Effects‐Of‐Being‐An‐Illegitimate‐Child

Figure 2: Provisional Administrative Line Between Somalia and Ethiopia

The border between UN Trust Territory of Somaliland (Somalia) and Ethiopia is shown in figure 3. Ethiopia’s eastern boundary should be Awash (Hawaash) river which is the boundary between Harar (Yellow region) and Shawa (Purple region)

Figure 3: Boundary Between UN Trust Territory of Somaliland (Somalia) and Ethiopia

The UN Trusteeship Agreement for Somalia stipulates that the boundaries with Ethiopia shall be those fixed by an international agreements and insofar as they are not already delimited, shall be delimited by a procedure approved by the General Assembly of the United Nations. The UK which is responsible for most of the boundary disputes in the world, has now agreed with Ethiopia to secure its borders knowing well that its boundary with Somalia was never delimited through an international agreement.

In 1977, 35,000 Somali Commandos with 250 tanks and 350 armored personnel carriers liberated all Ogaden in 3 months, from July 1977 to September 1977 when Ethiopian government referred the matter to the Organization of the African Unity but failed to get 2/3 necessary vote for an emergency meeting.

In November 1977 when Somali Commandos crossed Awash river, which is the correct boundary between Somalia and Ethiopia, 1,500 Russians, 15,000 Cubans and 2,000 South Yemenis came the rescue of Mangistu Mariam. More than 6,000 Ethiopians, 400 Cubans, 100 South Yemeni and 33 Russians were killed in that war. Ethiopian were being killed at the rate of 500 soldiers per week.

The answer to question (5) was given by the Chinese Ambassador the UN Geng Shuang on his explanation on vote on the sanctions against Somalia on Nov.17, 2022: Discrimination and unfair treatment of Somalia by the Security Council members, USA, UK and France.

Finally, the events from December 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024 seem to be well coordinated by the same actors. Article 5 of Resolution 733 states that the security council decides to impose arms embargo on Somalia for the purpose of establishing peace and stability in Somalia. The arms embargo should have been lifted when the conditions prompted the arms embargo were no longer in place and Somali Transitional Administration was formed. The prolonged arms embargo against Somalia was meant to weaken the Somali army and on the other hand the lack of action of the Security Council against Ethiopia when the situations on the ground warrants arms embargo clearly shows how US, UK and France were planning not to hinder the Ethiopian army development and give them the upper hand in the event of armed conflict with Somalia. But Allah’s plan always prevails.

One civil war after the other is what Ethiopia is going through at the moment and their army became weaker than the Somali army.

Somalis should be very cautious in dealing with the three Security Council members, the two tiny statelets in the Gulf and Norway. Do not let them confuse you with their exploitation plans disguised as aid package and development projects.


By: Sumayya Duale Warsame | Samiya Duale Warsame | Sakina Duale Warsame | Email: [email protected]


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