After the devastating military defeat suffered by Somaliland on the 25th of August, a trouncing some describe as akin to modern-day demilitarization, all hasn’t been well with President Muse Bihi.

Bihi suffered and survived a mild stroke. After survival, Muse has been restless to get revenge, and it is said that his desire for revenge consumes him and all those around him. But how to get revenge has so far proven perplexing for President Bihi.

Meanwhile, with Khatumo State today receiving its recognition as a federal member state, President Bihi’s days seem numbered; hence, an urgency to develop a new war strategy against Khatumo and Puntland that perhaps he expects will enable him to remain in office indefinitely.

But what is President Bihis’ new military strategy?

Sources close to Mr. Bihi are telling Daljir that the president will soon set base in Burco and will personally direct his new war strategy with the purpose of commencing clan hostilities in four different zones.

Qorilugad in Cayn region (Buuhoodle) is zone one where it is expected a Habarjeclo militia loyal to President Bihi to attack this zone. The strategy isn’t to hold territory but to create chaos; hence, force Khatumo defense forces to disperse into different directions.

Oog where Muse has the remnants of Somaliland army gathered and reinforced with new weapons and extra men is his zone two. This will be a direct attack on Khatumo’s mighty army that previously broke the back of the same army that is trying to attack them once again. This strategy is to push Khatumo forces all the way to Adhicadeeye on the outskirts of Laascaanood.

Zone three is Ceerigaabo and Sanaag region. This is the riskiest zone for a clan conflict as it won’t take much for hostilities to flare up and then rapidly expand. Indeed, this is what President Bihi is counting on. Unlike Habarjeclo in Qorilugad, in Ceerigaabo, President Bihi is counting on members of the Garxajis clan to lead the clan hostilities. For this purpose, the Garxajis armed clan militias from Gacan Libaax Movement has slowly been integrated back into the Somaliland army, and some are already manning the clan checkpoints that had recently been set up.

On east of Ceerigaabo towards Qaarar road, in the north towards Jiidali, and the southern front towards Fiqifuliye, all these areas around Ceerigaabo are now manned and under the control of clan militias loyal to President Bihi and were set up by Commander Nuuh Taani during last week’s trip to Ceerigaabo. The strategy is simply to try to expel Harti clans in these areas so to commence clan hostilities in and around Ceerigaabo.

Ceerigaabo, a major city under a four clan peace agreement, is susceptible to renewed clan hostilities unless the clan elders intervene urgently.

Galgala mountain range, formerly an al-Shabaab stronghold but free from al-Shabaab for the last few years, is Muse Bihi’s zone four war strategy. Galgala is on Muse’s crosshairs as many of the Warsangeli clan troops that liberated Galgala from al-Shabaab are now at the Oog frontlines facing Mr. Bihi’s ragtag militias. Again, with Mr. Bihi’s strategy of dispersing Khatumo defense forces, President Bihi is now playing his al-Shabaab card. Latest reports from local Sanaag villagers and herdsmen indicate that substantial number of armed militias have crossed over the Tabca road towards Maydh and to Calmadow mountain range with the intention of joining al-Shabaab members already with bases in that area. Their direction is said to be towards Galgala.

Then there is Somaliland’s X factor, the Garoowe-based opposition. The same group that during the fierce Laascaanood battles, with the coordination of Somaliland forces, withdrew their sub-clan militia from their defensive positions in Laascaanood only to attack Puntland forces in Garoowe. Similar to that failed strategy, Somaliland with the coordination of the Garoowe-based opposition has laid out plans to attack Puntland from within. As sources close to Muse Bihi have threatened, “this strategy is intended to force Puntland to recall its troops from the Oog in order to put down a potential rebellion by our partners in Garoowe.”

In today’s Khatumo state recognition press conference, Minister Fiqi called on Somaliland to keep the peace and accept the ceasefire; however, all indications are that Muse Bihi and Somaliland are on war footing.

Daljir Media | Puntland & Khatumo


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